Broker Check

 


May 15, 2017 - Markets Ignore the Politics

| May 15, 2017
Share |

Markets tuned out noise from Washington last week and continued to focus on economic fundamentals. Mildly rebounding retail sales and strong consumer sentiment seem to point toward a modestly stronger second quarter.[1]

After a three-week winning streak, both the Dow and S&P 500 reported slight losses.[2] The Dow closed with a 0.53% loss, and the S&P 500 reported a 0.35% decline for the week.[3] The NASDAQ, however, rose 0.34% while the MSCI EAFE reported a modest 0.16% gain.[4]

MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE

Soft retail earnings

Consumer retail purchases were up after a first-quarter decline. Sales rose by 0.4% (just shy of the 0.6% consensus), and 9 of the 13 retail categories posted gains.[5] As expected, early second-quarter gains suggest the first-quarter decline was just a blip.[6]

  • Continuing concerns over store closings

    A report last month concluded that in excess of 8,600 brick-and-mortar stores could close in 2017 due to poor sales. Last year, at least 2,000 stores shut their doors, while just over 5,000 closed in 2015. The record for store closings occurred in 2008 when over 6,000 stores closed.[7]

  • Strong consumer sentiment

    Despite modest retail sales, consumer confidence reached a 4-month high.[8] Consumer expectations are positive regarding job growth, income, and low inflation.[9] Furthermore, 44% of surveyed consumers expressed optimism in their financial prospects - the highest percentage since 2004.[10]

  • U.S. consumer prices rise in line with expectations

    The consumer price index rose 0.2% in April, in line with expectations for the month.[11] However, the medical care and communications sectors saw continuing price weakness.[12]

LOOKING AHEAD

This week, we will look forward to data regarding the strength of the housing market. Though the highest percent of consumers in over 10 years report positive opinions on selling homes, next week's numbers will give us a better idea of where the markets stand.[13] Finally, the market will continue to watch oil prices, which steadied this week after three weeks of decline.[14]

In the weeks ahead, possible corporate tax rate reductions and potential trade policy changes will remain in focus for markets. In addition, markets will remain interested in the Fed's interest rate plans and its plan to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.[15]

As always, we will continue to track the impact of international and domestic political news on the markets and the economy.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Housing Market Index
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production
Wednesday: EIA Petroleum Status Report
Friday: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

Notes: All index returns (except S&P 500) exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5- year and 10-year returns are annualized. The total returns for the S&P 500 assume reinvestment of dividends on the last day of the month. This may account for differences between the index returns published on Morningstar.com and the index returns published elsewhere. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.


These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.


Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

  1. http://wsj-us.econoday.com
  2. http://www.cnbc.com
    https://www.bloomberg.com
  3. http://performance.morningstar.com
    http://performance.morningstar.com
  4. http://performance.morningstar.com
    https://www.msci.com
  5. http://wsj-us.econoday.com
    https://www.bloomberg.com
  6. https://www.bloomberg.com
  7. http://money.cnn.com
  8. https://www.bloomberg.com
  9. http://wsj-us.econoday.com
  10. https://www.bloomberg.com
  11. http://wsj-us.econoday.com
  12. https://www.bloomberg.com
  13. https://www.bloomberg.com
    http://wsj-us.econoday.com
  14. http://www.cnbc.com
  15. http://www.cnbc.com
    http://www.reuters.com
Share |